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17/07/2009 - Bill Morton - The Importance of Different Positions in a Four |
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I have done a careful analysis of the figures that I have collected from scoring bowls for over ten years. My approach showed that the Leader rates as the LEAST important position in a FOUR. (I have no information on positions in a Triples or Pairs.) I assume that you do not allow attachments in submissions. Could a Moderator let me know please. Thus I refer you to my web site. The notes consist of ten pages that set out my reasoning. See my web page - http://www.bowlsmaterial.com and go to the page called Bowls Tactics 3 and open up the file with the same name as above. Please do not tell me that all positions rate as important. Of course they do. However try answering the question - If you held the position of Skipper and you knew that Player "Tom" would play a very high-quality game in the coming fours game and much better than the other two of your placed Players in what position would you want him to play? Some of you will say that this situation cannot never occur (and I agree) and that will give you an excuse for not answering this question. However what if you held the position of a Selector and you had to make up a Team of four and you had selected the Skipper and you had to place three other Players - and you had no one else. You look at the average score for the last five games and find that Player A has an average of 40%, Player B had an average of 45% and Player C had an average of 55%. Further, each of these Players have played in the Second position for each of the previous five games. Where would you place each Player? Note - these scores show the percentage of bowls that finish within three feet of the DFP (Designated Finishing Point). The scores come from using the Individual Bowl Scoring (IBS) approach.(See my web site for details of this evaluation approach.) My records show that a Division One Leader in Melbourne will have an average of 47% (based on over 100 games). Please do not reply to my proposition UNLESS you have studied my notes.I know that many of you will say the Leader is the most important because of the need to "get a good start" and/or "a good start will put pressure on the opposition". With all due repect, I do not wish to collect your OPINIONS. However I would welcome information on where you see my approach lacks a good method and/or I have made an error in my logic and so on.
I also know that even if you cannot find
any errors in my work many of you will continue to believe that the
Leader is the most important position in a Four !!!
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